Climate crisis, war and pandemic: how weather and global events have shaped UK electricity demand

The present study, using high-frequency hourly data from 2009 to 2023, investigates the impacts of weather conditions, carbon prices, COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war on electricity demand in the UK. Using a semi-parametric estimation technique – generalised additive models – we find that temperature, carbon prices, and snowfall have a significant non-linear impact on electricity usage. Temperature and electricity demand exhibit a non-linear, U-shaped pattern, with electricity demand decreasing during mild weather and sharply rising during extremely hot or cold weather. Carbon prices moderate the temperature effect on electricity demand, with higher prices reducing this effect. Snowfall and rain increase electricity demand due to additional heating needs. Our analyses also suggest that global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have strongly affected the trajectory of electricity demand, reflecting broader economic disruptions driven by global and geopolitical events. The results remain consistent after controlling for electricity prices. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive energy policies, including flexible carbon pricing strategies, to effectively manage electricity demand during extreme weather events and geopolitical crises.