TY - UNPB
T1 - Cointegration and causality between trade and growth
T2 - evidence from Romania, the CEE countries and EU
AU - Pop-Silaghi, Monica Ioana
N1 - Note: Economics discussion paper, 2006/8
PY - 2006/11
Y1 - 2006/11
N2 - A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of exports led growth but little is known about this area for Romania and some other Central Eastern European countries [CEEC]. Using quarterly data, we employ cointegration and Granger-causality tests on stochastic systems comprising exports, imports and non-exportable GDP. The findings show that only growth-led exports [GLE] hypothesis is vindicated in the case of Romania. We also test the relation between imports and growth, but failed to find any positive causality results. The inclusion of imports as a third variable within a Johansen's multivariate framework does not change the results. For comparison, same tests were applied to Bulgaria, the 10 countries recently joined the EU, the EU 15 and the EU 25. Bi-directional causality has been found for exports and non-exportable GDP only in the case of Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia and for the whole EU 15, implying a virtuous cycle of growth and exports.
AB - A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of exports led growth but little is known about this area for Romania and some other Central Eastern European countries [CEEC]. Using quarterly data, we employ cointegration and Granger-causality tests on stochastic systems comprising exports, imports and non-exportable GDP. The findings show that only growth-led exports [GLE] hypothesis is vindicated in the case of Romania. We also test the relation between imports and growth, but failed to find any positive causality results. The inclusion of imports as a third variable within a Johansen's multivariate framework does not change the results. For comparison, same tests were applied to Bulgaria, the 10 countries recently joined the EU, the EU 15 and the EU 25. Bi-directional causality has been found for exports and non-exportable GDP only in the case of Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia and for the whole EU 15, implying a virtuous cycle of growth and exports.
KW - CEEC
KW - time series
KW - Economics and econometrics
M3 - Discussion paper
T3 - Economics Discussion Paper
BT - Cointegration and causality between trade and growth
PB - Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Kingston University
CY - Kingston upon Thames, U.K.
ER -