Predictors of re-referral to children's social care services: an analysis of the national datasets for England

Repeat involvement with child welfare services is often considered undesirable, although there may be good reasons for a re-referral. It therefore helps to know the likelihood of and risk factors for re-referral when making decisions about care planning and case closure. This paper addresses gaps in the knowledge base by reporting on analysis of re-referrals within a large national dataset of children's social care in England. The data covered 3.4 million episodes that were closed to children's social care between 2014 and 2019, of which 1.4 million (41 %) were re-referred over the same period. Survival analysis techniques were used to estimate the probability of re-referral, accounting for varying lengths of follow-up. The results showed that the overall rate of re-referral was 58 % over six years and 32 % over 12 months following case closure. However, rates varied considerably depending on the category of assessed need, the intervention pathway following assessment, as well as other child and case-level characteristics. Implications are discussed for policy and practice in the sector.