Qualitative system dynamics approach to modelling cost escalation determinants in Nigerian public sector projects

Cost escalation has been identified as one of the most significant challenges and recurring issues in the delivery of social and economic infrastructure in the Nigerian public sector. Like many other countries in the Global South, the Nigerian public sector projects suffer from poor cost performance. Thus, this study aims to analyse the dynamics of construction cost escalation determinants and produced a conceptual system dynamic model that captures the intricate interactions among these determinants. This study includes a literature review and qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews. Data were obtained from 17 stakeholders involved in the delivery of Nigeria public sector projects, including Project managers, Architects, Civil engineer, Quantity surveyors and Construction managers. The data were analysed using a coding framework informed by case study approach, the principles of thematic analysis and saliency analysis framework, enabling the modelling of intricate interactions among various determinants of cost escalation.