Simulation of trauma incidents: modelling the evolution of patients and resources

Mathematical modeling and simulation with medical applications has gained much interest in the last few years, mainly due to the widespread availability of low-cost technology and computational power. This paper presents an integrated platform for the in-silico simulation of trauma incidents, based on a suite of interacting mathematical models. The models cover the generation of a scenario for an incident, a model of physiological evolution of the affected individuals, including the possible effect of the treatment, and a model of evolution in time of the required medical resources. The problem of optimal resource allocation is also investigated. Model parameters have been identified according to the expertise of medical doctors and by reviewing some related literature. The models have been implemented and exposed as web services, while some software clients have been built for the purpose of testing. Due to its extendability, our integrated platform highlights the potential of model-based simulation in different health-related fields, such as emergency medicine and personal health systems. Modifications of the models are already being used in the context of two funded projects, aiming at evaluating the response of health systems to major incidents with and without model-based decision support.