Spectral analysis as a tool for financial policy: an analysis of the short-end of the British term structure

In this paper, we show how to derive the spectra and cross-spectra of economic time series from an underlying econometric or VAR model. This allows us to conduct a proper frequency analysis evaluation of economic and financial variables on a reduced sample of data, without it being ruled out by the large sample requirements of direct spectral estimation. We show, in particular, how this can be done for time-varying models and time-varying spectra. We use our techniques to show how the behaviour of British interest rates changed during and following the ERM crisis of 1992/3.