Stock market integration: a multivariate GARCH analysis on Poland and Hungary

An examination of the linkages between the emerging stock markets in Warsaw and Budapest and the established markets in Frankfurt and the U.S. By using a four-variable asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we find evidence of return and volatility spillovers from the developed to the emerging markets. However, as the estimated time-varying conditional co-variances and the variance decompositions indicate limited interactions among the markets, the emerging markets are weakly linked to the developed markets. The implication is that foreign investors will benefit from the reduction of risk by adding the stocks in the emerging markets to their investment portfolio.